Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)

We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60% of cases, which can be interpreted as the overconfidence bias. Determinants of individual uncertainty, dis- agreement among forecasters and properties of aggregate distribution are analyzed. We find that the interquartile range of the aggregate distribution has the highest correlation with inflation variability; however the average confidence interval performs best in a forecasting exercise. Allowing subjects to insert asymmetric confidence intervals results in wider upper intervals than lower intervals on average, thus perceiving higher uncertainty with respect to inflation increases. In different treatments we study the influence of different monetary policy designs on the formation of confidence bounds. Inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of intervals than inflation forecast targeting.Laboratory Experiments;Confidence Bounds;New Keynesian Model;Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous expectations. Rules that use actual rather than forecasted inflation produce lower inflation variability and alleviate expectational cycles. Degree of responsiveness to deviations of inflation from its target in the Taylor rule produces nonlinear effects on inflation variability. We also provide considerable support for the existence of heterogeneity of inflation expectations and show that a significant proportion of subjects are rational in our experiment. However, most subjects rather than using a single model they tend to switch between alternative models.Laboratory Experiments;Inflation Expectations;New Keynesian Model;Monetary Policy Design

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design:Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous expectations. Rules that use actual rather than forecasted inflation produce lower inflation variability and alleviate expectational cycles. Degree of responsiveness to deviations of inflation from its target in the Taylor rule produces nonlinear effects on inflation variability. We also provide considerable support for the existence of heterogeneity of inflation expectations and show that a significant proportion of subjects are rational in our experiment. However, most subjects rather than using a single model they tend to switch between alternative models.

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation:Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)

We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60% of cases, which can be interpreted as the overconfidence bias. Determinants of individual uncertainty, dis- agreement among forecasters and properties of aggregate distribution are analyzed. We find that the interquartile range of the aggregate distribution has the highest correlation with inflation variability; however the average confidence interval performs best in a forecasting exercise. Allowing subjects to insert asymmetric confidence intervals results in wider upper intervals than lower intervals on average, thus perceiving higher uncertainty with respect to inflation increases. In different treatments we study the influence of different monetary policy designs on the formation of confidence bounds. Inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of intervals than inflation forecast targeting.

Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian sticky price framework, we study the process of inflation expectation formation. We focus on adaptive learning and rational expectations contrary to the previous literature that mostly studied simple heuristics. Using a test for rational expectations that allows heterogeneity of expectations we find that we cannot reject rationality for about 40% of subjects. More than 20% of subjects are also best described by adaptive learning models, where they behave like econometricians and update their model estimates every period. However, rather than using a single forecasting model, switching between models describes their behavior better. Switching is more likely to occur when experimental economy is in a recession

Influência da técnica de acabamento na estabilidade cromática dos bis-acrílicos

Tese de mestrado, Medicina Dentária, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Medicina Dentária, 2014Objetivo: Avaliar o efeito do tipo de polimento e do tempo de exposição a um corante na estabilidade cromática de duas resinas bis-acrílicas. Métodos: Foram preparados sessenta discos em resina bis-acrílica. Metade dos discos foram fabricados com Protemp 4 e a outra metade com Structur 3. As faces dos discos foram limpas com álcool e foram constituídos doze grupos experimentais (n=5) com base na utilização de diferentes métodos de polimento (sem tratamento adicional; escova de pelo de cabra; disco de grão grosso Sof-Lex seguido de escova de pelo de cabra; sequência de discos Sof-Lex; disco de grão grosso Sof-Lex seguido de aplicação de resina Fortify; disco de grão grosso Sof-Lex seguido de aplicação de Z-Prime Plus). Sessenta minutos após o polimento foi realizada a medição de cor inicial e os espécimes foram imersos em solução de café. Após 24 horas e 7 dias de imersão, foram realizadas novas medições dos parâmetros de cor. Para o registo da cor foram utilizados os parâmetros do sistema CIE L*a*b* e a diferença cromática foi calculada de acordo com a fórmula ΔE*=[(ΔL*)2+(Δa*)2+(Δb*)2]1/2. Os dados obtidos foram analisados com testes estatísticos não paramétricos de acordo com os métodos Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney e Wilcoxon (alfa=0,05). Resultados: Os valores da ΔE variaram entre 4,9 e 11,7 (24 horas) e 13,3 e 21,4 (7 dias). O aumento do tempo de imersão do bis-acrílico na solução de café conduziu a um aumento da ΔE (p<0,001). Às 24 horas, não se encontraram diferenças entre os materiais (p=0,941). Ao fim de 7 dias, o Protemp 4 mostrou valores da ΔE (p=0,032) inferiores aos obtidos com a Structur 3. Com exceção do Protemp 4 com 7 dias de imersão, a ΔE foi influenciada pelo método de polimento (p<0,05). Conclusão: Todos os espécimes apresentaram valores de ΔE considerados clinicamente inaceitáveis.Aim: To study the effect of several polishing techniques and time exposure to a staining agent on the colour stability of two bis-acrylic resins. Methods: Sixty cylindrical specimens of bis-acrylic were prepared, thirty with Protemp 4 and thirty with Strutur 3. Both sides of specimens were cleaned with alcohol and twelve groups were created (n=5) according to the surface treatment used (without any other treatment, goat hair brushes, Sof-Lex coarser grit disc followed by goat hair brushes, Sof-Lex sequence, Sof-Lex coarser grit disc with Fortify, Sof-Lex coarser grit disc with Z-Prime Plus). Sixty minutes after polishing, the baseline colour values were measured, and all the specimens were immersed in the staining solution (coffee). After 24 hours and 7 days additional measurements were taken. Colour changes were calculated according to the CIE L*a*b* colour scale, by the formula: ΔE*=[(ΔL*)2+(Δa*)2+(Δb*)2]1/2. All data were statistically analysed by non-parametric tests according to Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney and Wilcoxon methods (alpha=0.05). Results: ΔE mean values ranged between 4.9 and 11.7 after 24 hours of immersion and between 13.3 and 21.4 after 7 days. Increasing the immersion time in the staining solution led to an increase of ΔE values (p<0,001). After 24 hours of immersion, there were no statistical differences among materials (p=0.941). After 7 days of immersion, Protemp 4 obtained lower ΔE (p=0.032) than Structur 3. The ΔE was influenced by the polishing technique, except for Protemp 4 after 7 days of immersion (p<0.05). Conclusion: All specimens presented values for ΔE that were considered clinically inacceptable

Treatment challenges in and outside a specialist network setting: Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours

Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms comprise a group of rare tumours with special biology, an often indolent behaviour and particular diagnostic and therapeutic requirements. The specialized biochemical tests and radiological investigations, the complexity of surgical options and the variety of medical treatments that require individual tailoring, mandate a multidisciplinary approach that can be optimally achieved through an organized network. The present study describes currents concepts in the management of these tumours as well as an insight into the challenges of delivering the pathway in and outside a Network

Treatment challenges in and outside a network setting: Head and neck cancers

Head and neck cancer (HNC) is a rare disease that can affect different sites and is characterized by variable incidence and 5-year survival rates across Europe. Multiple factors need to be considered when choosing the most appropriate treatment for HNC patients, such as age, comorbidities, social issues, and especially whether to prefer surgery or radiation-based protocols. Given the complexity of this scenario, the creation of a highly specialized multidisciplinary team is recommended to guarantee the best oncological outcome and prevent or adequately treat any adverse effect. Data from literature suggest that the multidisciplinary team-based approach is beneficial for HNC patients and lead to improved survival rates. This result is likely due to improved diagnostic and staging accuracy, a more efficacious therapeutic approach and enhanced communication across disciplines. Despite the benefit of MTD, it must be noted that this approach requires considerable time, effort and financial resources and is usually more frequent in highly organized and high-volume centers. Literature data on clinical research suggest that patients treated in high-accrual centers report better treatment outcomes compared to patients treated in low-volume centers, where a lower radiotherapy-compliance and worst overall survival have been reported. There is general agreement that treatment of rare cancers such as HNC should be concentrated in high volume, specialized and multidisciplinary centers. In order to achieve this goal, the creation of international collaboration network is fundamental. The European Reference Networks for example aim to create an international virtual advisory board, whose objectives are the exchange of expertise, training, clinical collaboration and the reduction of disparities and enhancement of rationalize migration across Europe. The purpose of our work is to review all aspects and challenges in and outside this network setting planned for the management of HNC patients

Testicular germ-cell tumours and penile squamous cell carcinoma: Appropriate management makes the difference

Germ-cell tumours (GCT) of the testis and penile squamous cell carcinoma (PeSCC) are a rare and a very rare uro-genital cancers, respectively. Both tumours are well defined entities in terms of management, where specific recommendations - in the form of continuously up-to-dated guide lines-are provided. Impact of these tumour is relevant. Testicular GCT affects young, healthy men at the beginning of their adult life. PeSCC affects older men, but a proportion of these patients are young and the personal consequences of the disease may be devastating. Deviation from recommended management may be a reason of a significant prognostic worsening, as proper treatment favourably impacts on these tumours, dramatically on GCT and significantly on PeSCC. RARECAREnet data may permit to analyse how survivals may vary according to geographical areas, histology and age, leading to assume that non-homogeneous health-care resources may impact the cure and definitive outcomes. In support of this hypothesis, some epidemiologic datasets and clinical findings would indicate that survival may improve when appropriate treatments are delivered, linked to a different accessibility to the best health institutions, as a consequence of geographical, cultural and economic barriers. Finally, strong clues based on epidemiological and clinical data support the hypothesis that treatment delivered at reference centres or under the aegis of a qualified multi-institutional network is associated with a better prognosis of patients with these malignancies. The ERN EURACAN represents the best current European effort to answer this clinical need

European code against cancer 4th edition: 12 ways to reduce your cancer risk

This overview describes the principles of the 4th edition of the European Code against Cancer and provides an introduction to the 12 recommendations to reduce cancer risk. Among the 504.6 million inhabitants of the member states of the European Union (EU28), there are annually 2.64 million new cancer cases and 1.28 million deaths from cancer. It is estimated that this cancer burden could be reduced by up to one half if scientific knowledge on causes of cancer could be translated into successful prevention. The Code is a preventive tool aimed to reduce the cancer burden by informing people how to avoid or reduce carcinogenic exposures, adopt behaviours to reduce the cancer risk, or to participate in organised intervention programmes. The Code should also form a base to guide national health policies in cancer prevention. The 12 recommendations are: not smoking or using other tobacco products; avoiding second-hand smoke; being a healthy body weight; encouraging physical activity; having a healthy diet; limiting alcohol consumption, with not drinking alcohol being better for cancer prevention; avoiding too much exposure to ultraviolet radiation; avoiding cancer-causing agents at the workplace; reducing exposure to high levels of radon; encouraging breastfeeding; limiting the use of hormone replacement therapy; participating in organised vaccination programmes against hepatitis B for newborns and human papillomavirus for girls; and participating in organised screening programmes for bowel cancer, breast cancer, and cervical cancer